Oregon Democrats’ congressional and legislative redistricting plans set for a vote in next week’s special session face a roadblock in the state House, where Republican Leader Christine Drazan said on Thursday that her caucus is united in its opposition to Democrats’ proposed maps.
State lawmakers wrapped up four days of lengthy public hearings on their initial congressional and state legislative district proposals Sept. 13, and they are scheduled to meet Monday for a special session to vote on final plans.
Democrats and Republicans privately discussed potential changes to the Democrats’ proposed maps over the last couple days. But Democrats, who hold supermajorities in both chambers, had not released any final plans for the public to see until Thursday night.
Drazan, who is from Canby, said in an interview Thursday afternoon that Democrats including House Speaker Tina Kotek of Portland have made clear they plan to push ahead with House and Senate district maps drawn by Senate Democrats with input, but not support, from Senate Republicans. “It definitely is a take it or leave it offer right now,” Drazan said, adding that Democrats only appear willing to make modest changes to strengthen the positions of some incumbent legislators.
The Oregonian/OregonLive’s analysis found that Senate Democrats’ plan, drafted before lawmakers took public input, would add a solidly Democratic seat in the state Senate, reduce by one the number of competitive seats and result in no net change in the number of Republican leaning seats. In the state House, Senate Democrats’ plan would likely result in an additional Republican leaning seat and increase the number of competitive seats by two, while reducing total Democratic leaning seats by three.
Under Senate Democrats’ plans, both chambers would likely continue to have Democratic supermajorities, meaning the party would hold at least 60% of the seats in each chamber, even though Joe Biden only claimed 56% of votes Oregonians cast in the 2020 presidential election.
As for the new congressional map that will determine how Oregonians elect their U.S. House representatives for the next decade, Drazan said Democrats told Republicans that their plan published Sept. 3 was not up for negotiation. That map is likely to give 86% of Oregon’s seats in the U.S. House to Democrats.
Speaking of Democratic lawmakers on Oregon’s House and Senate redistricting committees, Drazan said, “They said, ‘You know what, our congressional delegation in (Washington) D.C. has locked us down, we are not going to talk about those maps.”
“That’s partisan,” Drazan said. “That’s wholly illegal to say incumbent protection is at the heart of how we drafted those maps and we’re not going to listen to what the public said.”
Sen. Tim Knopp, a Republican from Bend who is vice chair of the Senate redistricting committee, concurred with Drazan’s characterization of the reasons Democrats provided for their unwillingness to consider changes to their congressional district plan. “I would say that’s an accurate reflection.”
Rep. Andrea Salinas, a Lake Oswego Democrat who is co-chair of the House redistricting committee, wrote in a text message Thursday afternoon that Democrats “have been looking at the maps that were submitted and the public testimony” as they consider final congressional district plans. “The (congressional) delegation isn’t at the table,” Salinas wrote. “Congressman Schrader, for example, has been on the record that he has not been involved in this process. This is by design because we are committed to fair and representative maps that will hold up to the highest of legal standards.”
Salinas wrote that Democrats have “been hard at work incorporating feedback from the public, as well as from Republicans” and she said Republicans’ congressional plan was a “highly partisan, plainly gerrymandered map like we’ve seen from Republicans in other states.”
Oregon is getting a sixth congressional seat as a result of its pace of population growth over the past few decades. Only six states in the nation are picking up additional seats.
A poll of Oregonians conducted this spring found that a majority – 56% – said both parties should have at least two districts that are likely to send a member of their party to Congress. Among Democrats, only 40% said it would be “most reasonable” to limit Republicans to fewer than two seats.
But Democrats in Salem didn’t see it that way, even after Kotek, the Democratic House speaker, gave Republicans an equal number of seats on the House redistricting committee as a reward for their dropping delay tactics that were slowing the pace of voting on bills.
“They weren’t as open to earning our support as I would have hoped with an equal committee,” Drazan said.
The committee setup means Democrats cannot unilaterally pass a redistricting plan to send it to the House floor.
When it came time to unveil initial proposed maps for congressional and legislative districts, Republicans presented their favored plans as did House Democrats. Senate Democrats unfurled a third set of maps, drawn with input but not approval from Senate Republicans.
After those maps were made public, the House and Senate redistrict committees held 12 virtual public hearings that wrapped up Monday.
House Republicans drafted new state House and Senate districts this week, which Drazan said took into account the public testimony on initial maps. For example, she said in an interview Tuesday that Republicans responded to public concerns about the GOP’s initial proposal to scrap the solidly blue House district that currently runs along I-5 from north Salem to Woodburn which currently has the largest Latino population in the state and is represented by Rep. Teresa Alonso León.
According to The Oregonian/OregonLive’s analysis of the latest proposals provided by House Republicans, they now propose to keep Woodburn and North Salem together in a district, as Latino residents of that district requested, but include fewer blue precincts from northeast Salem and more red precincts including around Mt. Angel. Population in the district would be majority Latino, although the current voting age population of Latinos would be approximately 2 percentage points lower than in the current district. The district would remain Democratic, although less strongly so.
Overall, The Oregonian/OregonLive found House Republicans’ latest plan would decrease the number of strongly Democratic House districts by four and increase the number of likely Republican held districts by five, compared with Oregon’s current lines. There would be one less competitive seat. In the Senate, House Republicans’ plan would add one likely Republican district while subtracting a competitive district and leaving Democrats with their current tally of 16 safe and strongly blue leaning districts.
If Democrats push ahead with congressional and legislative maps that House Republicans disagree with, Republicans or others dissatisfied with the plans could appeal the legislative map to the state Supreme Court and the congressional plan to a five judge panel appointed by Oregon’s chief justice.
Misha Tseytlin, a lawyer in Chicago with the national firm Troutman Pepper who represents House Republicans’ political action committee Evergreen Oregon, said in a statement Thursday that “Oregon law wholly prohibits the drawing of any district for the purpose of helping any political party or incumbent legislator.” He pointed to a case in Florida, where the state Supreme Court in 2015 ordered eight congressional districts to be redrawn based on findings the districts violated a state constitutional amendment prohibiting partisan political gerrymandering. “As the Florida Supreme Court held addressing indistinguishable language, this means that if a legislature controlled by one party adopts maps for partisan purposes, those maps are illegal,” Tseytlin said. “If the Oregon Democrats adopt anything like the maps that they proposed on September 3, those maps will be in violation of Oregon law and will not survive a legal challenge.”
Senate redistricting chair Sen. Kathleen Taylor of Portland and a spokesperson for Senate President Peter Courtney of Salem could not be reached for comment Thursday afternoon.
In the House, Kotek’s communications director Danny Moran wrote in an email that the speaker “is really disappointed House Republicans on the redistricting committee didn’t engage more meaningfully during this process. Thankfully, there was strong public participation from every corner of the state, and the maps will reflect that feedback.”
-- Hillary Borrud; hborrud@oregonian.com; 503-294-4034; @hborrud
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