House Democrats retained their majority on Tuesday night, but it’s unclear if they will gain anywhere near as many seats as they had hoped.
Dozens of races remain uncalled, in part because many states are still counting mail-in ballots, but so far it’s been a disappointing night for Democrats who had hoped to ride Joe Biden’s coattails to a double-digit increase. They fell short of ousting top-targeted incumbents in Ohio, Illinois and Texas. By early Wednesday morning, Democrats had not ousted a single GOP incumbent and had lost at least six lawmakers, including Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala in South Florida seats that Hillary Clinton carried by double-digits in 2016.
Democratic leaders remained upbeat and stressed the number of ballots that remain uncounted.
"We have held the House and now, when – after all the votes are counted, we’ll see how much better we will do than that," Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement. "We are in a situation where some of the states have just said we’re not counting any more until tomorrow morning and, of course, the West Coast has not chimed in yet, so there’s more to come."
Yet House Republicans, who’d been plagued by poor fundraising and recruitment flops, were far more hopeful after the initial results. Reps. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) and Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) all held on. And Democratic prospects were dimming in Texas, where the party was targeting 10 seats.
Republican Troy Nehls captured an open Houston seat despite being severely outspent by his Democratic opponent. While several races were too close to call, GOP Rep. Chip Roy broke out a sizable lead, as did the GOP nominees in the seats held by retiring Reps. Will Hurd (R-Texas) and Kenny Marchant (R-Texas). In suburban Indianapolis, Republican Victoria Spartz also retains a lead over Democrat Christina Hale.
Republicans picked up a seat in Oklahoma City that Democrats flipped in the midterms when Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn conceded to state Sen. Stephanie Bice early Wednesday morning. Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small lost her New Mexico district after just one term. Another shocking win came in South Carolina, where Democrats felt certain freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham would prevail. The AP called the race for Republican Nancy Mace early Wednesday morning.
And House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson, a veteran Blue Dog Democrat who had been in office since 1991, was defeated in a rural Minnesota district won by President Donald Trump.
In Iowa, Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer trailed her GOP opponent by roughly 11,000 votes in a race that was too close to call. And in northwest Illinois, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Cheri Bustos was also locked in a surprisingly tight race.
In Nebraska’s 2nd district, Democrats had been confident that Kara Eastman would unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon after a close matchup in 2018. She lost even as Biden picked up the electoral vote there.
In the span of less than 24 hours, one of Democrats’ strongest cycles — where many expected to coast on Biden’s popularity in the suburbs, as well as their own powerhouse fundraising — quickly devolved into anxiety and uncertainty.
Some Democratic strategists say they expect many races to look much less lopsided later on Wednesday and even into the week as mail ballots are counted. Races that appeared to be in strong favor of the GOP — from Staten Island to the Richmond suburbs to central Michigan — are expected to become much closer as election officials count more mail-in ballots.
On Staten Island, Democratic Rep. Max Rose trailed Republican Nicole Malliotakis by nearly 38,000 votes. But he said in a speech late Tuesday night that he was not conceding. “At this moment there are more than 40,000 absentee ballots that were returned, with potentially 10,000 more in the mail,” he said
Democrats did have some bright spots on Tuesday night, with House Transportation Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio beating back a well-funded GOP challenger in his purple seat in southwestern Oregon. Another vulnerable Democrat, Rep. Andy Kim in N.J., held on in a previously GOP stronghold in New Jersey, as did Democratic Reps. Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred in Texas.
But as of early Wednesday morning, the fate of dozens of vulnerable Democrats — as well as the party’s top pick-up opportunities — remained uncalled.
Earlier Tuesday night, House Republicans added two new prominent members to their caucus. Madison Cawthorn, 25, will be the youngest member of Congress in modern history with his win in a western North Carolina seat vacated by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. And as expected, voters in a deep red northwest Georgia seat tapped Marjorie Taylor Greene, a businesswoman who has expressed belief in the QAnon conspiracy theory and taped hours of Facebook videos expressing racist and Islamophobic views.
Democrats are also closely watching a pair of House seats in Virginia, where freshmen Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria battled to hold onto seats they flipped in 2018. Republican Nick Freitas led Spanberger by 20 points. Democrats expected to make up votes in later hours because Virginia counts its in-person, same-day ballots first, but its unclear how many remain uncounted.
The party also fell short in many of their reach targets, including GOP Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), French Hill (R-Ark.), John Carter (R-Texas) and Van Taylor (R-Texas).
The first two flips of the night came in North Carolina, where as expected Democrat Kathy Manning flipped a newly redistricted seat based in Greensboro and Deborah Ross, the 2016 Senate nominee, won in a new Raleigh-area district.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer said from the start of the election cycle that they could still reclaim the majority. Privately, many Republicans thought a wash was the best-case scenario, but they have been hopeful that they would knock out some Democratic incumbents in Trump country.
"Our guys are all in the fight," Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former NRCC chairman, said in an interview last week. "Where we can control things, we’ve done a good job. Obviously our fate is tied to the president but I think he has a little bit of momentum right now."
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Democrats keep the House, but struggle to gain seats - POLITICO
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