opinion
Here’s a sentence I never thought I’d be writing in my lifetime: Arizona Democrats soon may actually grab some power at the state Capitol.
The party that’s long been ignored during decades of Republican rule appears poised to take over the state House. There’s even an outside chance they could control the Senate after the Nov. 3 election.
You think it’s a big deal that Arizona could back a Democrat for president for the first time in 24 years?
How about the prospect of Democrats taking control of the state Legislature for the first time in 54 years? (Cue the power set, dropping into a dead faint.)
Is a flip possible? Some say yes
“For the first time in my life of political engagement in Arizona going back 30 years, I can actually see Democrats winning the state House,” former legislator-turned-GOP consultant Stan Barnes told me. “It doesn’t mean I think it’s going to happen. It means it’s not just a dream. It’s not just an aspirational thing.
“Every year since 1988, Democrats have been saying, ‘This is our year.’ This time, I think they have reason for optimism.”
Changing demographics and a Republican Party that has chased off moderates will do that. So will a president who has energized Democrats and turned off moderate Republican and independent voters.
Longtime GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin puts the odds of Democrats taking control of the House at 60-40 and says they have an outside shot at the Senate as well. The more likely scenario, though, would be a 15-15 split in the upper chamber.
But even that is a stunner when you consider that Republicans have run the Senate for all but two of the last 30 years. (The chamber split 15-15 in 2001-2002.) They now dominate, 17-13, meaning Democrats would need to pick up two seats to gain a share of power and three to take control.
What to watch in the Senate
Here are the three Senate races to watch:
District 6
This Republican district, stretching from Flagstaff to the Rim Country and the White Mountains, is ground zero in this year’s legislative races.
Republicans are pinning their hopes on retired Air Force colonel and pilot Wendy Rogers, who for 10 years has been trying to snag a seat in Congress or the Legislature.
Rogers knocked off Republican incumbent Sen. Sylvia Allen in a bruising primary, spending close to a half a million dollars in the hope of winning this $24,000-a-year job. She ran to the right of Allen (if that’s even possible) and now faces Democrat Felicia French of Pine, a retired Army colonel and combat nurse who came within a few hundred votes of ousting Republican Rep. Bob Thorpe in 2018.
Rogers’ primary upset has left many Republicans writing off this seat as a lost cause. Even District 6 Rep. Walt Blackman, R-Snowflake, has said he won’t campaign with Rogers and may not even vote for her.
District 28
Republican Sen. Kate Brophy McGee is fighting for her political life in a rematch against Democrat Christine Marsh in this north-central Phoenix district. Two years ago, Marsh, a teacher, came within 267 votes of beating Brophy McGee, one of the Legislature’s few remaining moderate Republicans and thus, an endangered species.
District 17
Assuming Rogers and Brophy McGee go down, this Chandler district will decide whether Republicans lose control of the Senate.
GOP Sen. J.D. Mesnard won the seat in 2018 by just one percentage point (1,744 votes). Since then, Democratic voter registration here has grown by 16% to the Republicans’ 3%.
Mesnard is being challenged by Ajlan Kurdoglu, a first-generation American who emigrated from Turkey and owns a furniture store.
Of the three Republican incumbents, Mesnard is considered the safest and it would be a long shot to take him out. But it’s worth noting that Chandler two years ago already gave one of its two House seats to a Democrat. It also was one of those Republican districts that helped send Democrat Kyrsten Sinema rather than Republican Martha McSally to the Senate. (Sinema won here by 3.5%, or 3,402 votes.)
What to watch in the House
Then there’s the House.
Democrats haven’t controlled the place since the Monkees were singing the Last Train to Clarksville in 1966. But they picked up four seats in 2018, resulting in a 31-29 split.
Democrats need to pick up just two seats to take control. But Republicans think they have a few opportunities to knock off Democrats,
Here are the districts where Democrats have best chances to pick up seats:
District 6
This Republican district — covering Flagstaff, the White Mountains and Rim Country —- has become more competitive as Democratic voter registration has grown by 25% in the last four years compared to Republicans’ 17%.
And this year, there’s an open seat.
Former GOP Rep. Brenda Barton of Payson is hoping to claim the seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Bob Thorpe while Rep. Blackman is seeking re-election.
Democrats are placing all their hopes on Flagstaff Mayor Coral Evans, who has raised far more money than Barton and Blackman combined. Meanwhile, Coconino County Supervisor Art Babbott of Flagstaff, a former Democrat, is running as an independent.
District 20
This northwest Valley district is another Republican district that put Sinema in the Senate. (She won here by 3.7%, or 2,757 votes.)
Democrat Judy Schwiebert, a former teacher from Phoenix, has raised more than either of the GOP incumbents, Shawnna Bolick of Phoenix and Anthony Kern of Glendale.
Of the two incumbents, Kern is probably the most vulnerable. It doesn’t help that he made headlines last year when he asked a fellow legislator to sponsor a bill that could have allowed him to get his name off a list of dishonest law enforcement officers. (Kern landed on the “Brady List” after he was fired from his job as an El Mirage Police Department civilian code enforcement officer in 2014 for lying to his supervisor.)
District 21
Democrat Kathy Knecht is challenging GOP Rep. Kevin Payne and challenger Beverly Pingerelli in this Peoria district. She’s got name ID, having run for the Senate two years ago, and there’s an open seat. But even Democrats admit she faces a tough battle in a solidly Republican district.
District 23
Democrat Eric Kurland is a teacher who lost his 2018 bid for a House seat in this Scottsdale/Fountain Hills district. This year, however, there's an open seat as Rep. Jay Lawrence was bounced by challenger Joseph Chaplick in the Republican primary.
This is a heavily Republican district and it's be a shock to see a Democrat win it. Then again, Democrats will be spending big on the congressional front, hoping to oust Rep. David Schweikert, who was recently reprimanded by the House for ethics violations.
Democrats are banking on a big turnout here to support Schweikert’s well-financed opponent, Hiral Tipirneni, hoping that Kurland can reap the benefit.
Where the GOP could pick up seats
Republicans also are hoping to pick up seats. Their best shots:
District 4
Republicans tell me this may be their best pickup opportunity, even though Democrats dominate in this district, which stretches from Yuma to Tucson and up into southwestern Maricopa County.
Republican John Joel of Buckeye has solid farming roots and is hoping to knock off either House Minority Leader Charlene Fernandez of Yuma or Rep. Geraldine Peten of Goodyear.
It’s worth noting that Peten received nearly a third fewer votes than Fernandez in last month’s Democratic primary and fewer votes than Joel won in the GOP primary. Based on that, Republicans see an opening.
District 17
In 2018, Democratic Rep. Jennifer Pawlick won this Chandler seat from Republicans. Now Republican Liz Harris is hoping to get it back.
District 18
Once a Republican stronghold, this Ahwatukee-based district is now represented by three Democrats. Former GOP Rep. Bob Robson of Ahwatukee and challenger Don Hawker of Tempe are hoping to reclaim those House seats from Reps. Mitzi Epstein of Tempe and Jennifer Jermaine of Chandler.
Robson is a moderate Republican and well known in the district. I wouldn’t count him out. In fact, he probably represents the Republicans’ best chance of picking up a seat.
Meanwhile, Democrats have their best chance in generations to finally win a share of power at the state Capitol.
It’ll all come down to who turns out to vote.
“It’s going to come down to turnout almost exclusively,” Democratic strategist Chad Campbell told me. “Does the base turn out for both sides, and do those suburban independent voters who left Trump in 2018, do they vote Democratic again? As of right now, the polling seems to show that trend is holding.”
Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com.
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