House reconciliation vote could slip to Saturday - Roll Call

“The research literature on this is very mixed,” he said.  “And so we end up … coming down in the middle of that literature, on the effects of deterrence on additional revenues. My understanding is that others take more either optimistic or aggressive positions and really see a lot of weight on deterrence. … It’s just not as we see it in the center of the research literature.”

But Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., a leading moderate who helped force the vote delay two weeks ago, said he would not be troubled if the CBO estimate on tax enforcement revenue came in lower than the administration’s forecast. He said lawmakers had debated the issue when considering the same enforcement provision as an offset for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and Democrats and Republicans generally agreed the CBO estimate was too conservative.

“That was baked in," Gottheimer told reporters. “There’s a difference of opinion there.”

Inflation concerns

Across the Capitol, Senate centrist Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va., said he’s eager to see the CBO estimates, both to ensure the measure is paid for and to help evaluate its impact on inflation. However, Manchin said he doesn’t see the recent spikes in inflation trending downward soon “no matter what happens” with the reconciliation bill.

Swagel, who served as assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy in the George W. Bush administration, also said he expects inflation “will remain elevated at least through the first part of next year and, more likely, throughout a large part of next year.”

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