Maine’s new map doesn’t do much to change Golden’s position heading into 2022. He’s still in a district that voted for Trump — by 6 points, compared with 8 points under the current lines — according to calculations by Daily Kos Elections. But Golden has weathered tough campaigns in the past. He has more than $1 million in the bank, but he faces a well-funded rematch with Republican Bruce Poliquin, who held the seat for two terms before losing to Golden in the country’s first use of ranked choice voting for Congress in 2018.
Member-versus-member races
With West Virginia losing one of its three seats in redistricting, McKinley and Mooney will face each other in a safely Republican district in the northern half of the state. Trump would have defeated Biden 68 percent to 31 percent here, according to Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst at Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. McKinley, whose votes have been more in line with the Trump-era GOP, led Mooney 44 percent to 29 percent, with 18 percent of respondents undecided, in a poll released last week by the Republican group GOPAC. Mooney has more money in the bank, but he is also under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged misuse of campaign funds.
Newman, who ousted Rep. Daniel Lipinski in a 2020 primary, announced she would challenge Casten after state Democratic lawmakers passed a new House map — still to be signed by Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker —that drew her into a district with Democrat Jesús “Chuy” García that is nearly 67 percent Latino. The matchup with Casten once again pits Newman against a more centrist member of her own party. Much of the new district is made up of territory that Newman currently represents, but she enters the race at a more than 2-to-1 cash disadvantage. And Casten is no stranger to tough campaigns — he flipped his current seat, which had been drawn to favor Republicans, during the Democratic wave of 2018.
The new Illinois map lumps Bost and Miller into the same southern Illinois district, but Miller has not yet said if she would run there. That’s led to chatter that she could take on GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in the new, safely red 15th District after his current 13th District was made more Democratic. While both Miller and Bost boast strong conservative voting records, there are more opportunities for Miller to create a contrast with the more moderate Davis. Davis has also left open speculation that he could run for governor.
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November 09, 2021 at 09:03PM
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These House members are vulnerable next year, and they're not alone - Roll Call
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