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Quick Fix
— Attention is turning to a Texas state House special election today near Houston, where Democrats are hoping to get a head start on their goal of flipping the GOP-controlled chamber.
— Candidates are launching some of their last television ads ahead of the Iowa caucuses. Totally missing from the ads? Any attacks on the other candidates.
— House Majority PAC, the super PAC associated with House Democratic leadership, posted a record off-year fundraising haul as both sides gear up in the battle for the House.
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks to Ally (amutnick@politico.com; @allymutnick) for helping out with today’s Topline! Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, and follow me at @ZachMontellaro.
Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @JamesArkin.
Days until the Iowa caucuses: 6
Days until the New Hampshire primary: 14
Days until the Nevada caucuses: 25
Days until the South Carolina primary: 32
Days until the 2020 election: 280
TopLine
DEEP IN THE HEART — Voters in the Houston area will head to the polls today for a special election runoff for a state House seat that’s attracted outsized attention, as Democrats plot a takeover of that chamber — and a seat at the policy- and map-making table in Austin — this fall. They need to flip nine seats to gain control in what would be a coup for congressional redistricting; Texas is poised to gain at least two seats in 2022.
The race pits Democrat Eliz Markowitz against Republican Gary Gates, and Democratic groups have poured hundreds of thousands into the district against the self-funding Gates, who has the backing of national Republicans, as well as Gov. Greg Abbott’s political machine. Top Democratic presidential candidates have also backed Markowitz, including Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Mike Bloomberg.
Democrats hoping to flip the state House are looking for a head start on the process, but also note that HD-28 — while on the state Democratic Party’s list of 22 target districts — is not among the most competitive districts they’re trying to flip en route to a majority. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke, who has lent his starpower to Markowitz’s campaign, lost it by just 3 points in his bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, making it the sixteenth-most-favorable district (based on 2018 margins) for Democrats out of their 22 targets,
Notably, there is some level of expectation-setting from Democrats who have invested in the race as well. A memo circulated by Forward Majority — a Democratic group focused on legislative races that’s invested more than $400,000 in this particular election — read that this election is “an important contest,” but shouldn’t be viewed as a bellwether. A win from Markowitz would be “a thunderclap upset,” the memo read. Forward Majority also brought up child abuse accusations against Gates from 2000 in an ad, charges which Gates denies and long fought.
Republicans, too, have taken notice. “Democrats are clearly managing expectations after spending the last three weeks talking a big game in the district," Aaron De Leon, political director for the pro-Gates Associated Republicans of Texas, told The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek. "Now as early vote tallies roll in, they are trying to save face at the last minute as Fort Bend voters are clearly rejecting their radical progressive agenda.” Svitek reported that early-voting turnout has been big — more people voted early now than in the November special election — and that an analysis from the Gates campaign found that 53 percent of the early vote was Republican, 30 percent was Democratic and 17 percent was independents.
Even still, this seat, located in Fort Bend County, could bring valuable lessons for both House Democrats’ prospects in the Lone Star State and the battle for the statehouse. It has similar demographic trends to most of the seven congressional seats that the DCCC is targeting in 2020. Voters in HD-28 backed Mitt Romney by nearly 30 points in 2012, while President Donald Trump won it by just 10 in 2018.
Presidential Big Board
ON THE AIRWAVES — Candidates now have less than a week to get their closing messages out on the airwaves in Iowa, and what’s notable is that no attacks are being lobbed. Most of the ads are aspirational in nature, but strike very different messages.
Biden is launching his final ad in the state, urging voters to imagine a post-Trump presidency. The ad, which was shared first with yours truly, wants voters to look ahead. “Imagine all the progress we can make in the next four years,” Biden, who is narrating the ad, says. “What we imagine today, you can make a reality. But first we need to beat Donald Trump.” This is running in conjunction with an ad released last week in the state that makes a more explicit electability argument, saying Biden is best suited to beat Trump. “This is no time to take a risk, we need our strongest candidate,” the ad’s narrator says.
Bernie Sanders’ latest ad in the state, meanwhile, focuses on generations of presidents talking about health care. “Now is the time to take on the greed of the health care industry and finally pass Medicare-for-All,” Sanders says in his ad.
Pete Buttigieg is up with what his campaign describes as its “closing” television ad in Iowa. “It's time to turn the page from a Washington experience paralyzed by the same old thinking, polarized by the same old fights, to a bold vision for the next generation,” Buttigieg says in the ad, highlighting both his youth and being an outsider.
Warren’s new ads in the state also both make a fairly explicit electability argument. One ad feature members of her family, who say they’re typically Republicans, saying they’ll support her. A second ad is a contrast ad highlighting the different upbringings between her and Trump. “Trump’s life taught him how to get rich on the backs of others,” Roxane Gay, the ad’s narrator, says. “Elizabeth Warren will be a president that works for you.”
And Andrew Yang’s new spot emphasizes his messaging on the changing economy. “I’m running for president because I’m a parent and a patriot, and I have seen the future that we’re leaving for our kids,” he says in the ad. “And it is not something I am willing to accept.”
— In non-Iowa ads: Tom Steyer released an ad in South Carolina boosting the endorsement of Greenwood City Councilwoman Edith Childs, whom Obama credited for his “Fired up! Ready to go!” chant. Bloomberg also released an ad highlighting Judge Judy’s endorsement.
Sanders released three ads in Nevada, his first spots in the state. One ad says “hard working people [were] betrayed by Trump” and that Sanders will fight for them. A second ad, narrated by Sanders, rails against billionaires. A third ad, which is in Spanish, highlights Sanders’ family history, saying “the story of Bernie Sanders is our story,” while talking about his father immigrating to the country.
FIRST-IN-THE-NATION — Biden has put New Hampshire on the backburner as he focuses on the other early states. “Biden has been dark on New Hampshire television since the New Year. He has a smaller presence on the ground compared to his rivals, barely takes questions from voters, and he’s trailing in the polls here,” POLITICO’s Marc Caputo and Trent Spiner reported. “The former veep’s campaign stresses he’s not writing off New Hampshire, that he has more major endorsements here than any other candidate and visited last Friday and Saturday. But in recent weeks, Biden has intensified his focus on the two states whose caucuses bookend the Granite State’s Feb. 11 primary — Iowa and Nevada — according to those familiar with the campaign’s strategy.”
THE REELECT — Trump’s team is flooding Iowa with prominent supporters, hoping to boost turnout in the Republican caucuses as a show of strength. Over 80 surrogates are expected, The Wall Street Journal’s Catherine Lucey reported, including campaign manager Brad Parscale, his sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, several members of his cabinet and top congressional allies, like House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Rep Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and recent impeachment star Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.).
ALL THE STARS — As Sanders surges in Iowa, he’s leaning on star-studded supporters to propel his campaign. “Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), filmmaker and liberal stalwart Michael Moore, actor Kendrick Sampson and recording artists Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend ... are among those who have stumped or will be stumping for him,” POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein wrote, in an effort to bring out young and unlikely voters to events.
THE DEBATE STAGE — Progressives are worried that Bloomberg is going unscrutinized in the primary, with some lobbying the DNC to include the billionaire in future debates, POLITICO’s Chris Cadelago and Sally Goldenberg reported. Some interesting details from inside Bloomberg’s camp: “Bloomberg has dispatched top aides to appeal to the DNC for a change in the rules that would allow him to participate, three sources familiar with the effort said. It’s unclear whether that would happen any time soon. But the sources projected confidence the DNC will ultimately agree, so much so that Bloomberg has been participating in debate prep inside his Midtown Manhattan headquarters.”
JUST SUPER — We won’t know who has donated to the pro-Deval Patrick super PAC for a while. Reason to Believe PAC, which made a $2 million ad buy backing Patrick, reported just $200 in contributions in December on its year-end FEC filing — meaning donors waited until the new year to bankroll the operation.
ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Some more congressional endorsements: Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), who briefly ran for president, backed Biden. Meanwhile, Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) became the fifth member of Congress to back Bloomberg, telling POLITICO’s Chris Cadelago that he has “a lot of confidence that this is a person who is up to the task on the big issues that face the country.”
— The Keene Sentinel editorial board endorsed Amy Klobuchar ahead of the New Hampshire primary. Meanwhile, the editorial board of The Lowell Sun, which serves New Hampshire and Massachusetts towns around Lowell, Mass., endorsed Andrew Yang for the nomination.
Down the Ballot
FIRST IN SCORE — JUST SUPER — House Majority PAC raised a whopping $41 million in 2019, nearly three times more than the $14.8 million it raised in the 2017 off-year, Ally writes in. It started 2020 with $37.5 million on hand. The haul includes a $10 million donation from Bloomberg.
HMP raised more than its GOP counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, which said Monday that it raised $32.6 million (which is also an off-year record for them), and has $28 million in the bank. (This a reversal from the 2017 off-year when CLF raised $26.9 million and HMP raised $14.8 million.) Meanwhile, American Action Network, the nonprofit tied to CLF, raised about $35.4 million in 2017 — they did not announce a cash on hand balance — while the Democratic nonprofit House Majority Forward did not announce a fundraising total.
— Senate Majority PAC, the Senate Democratic super PAC, raised $61 million in 2019, Campaign Pro’s James Arkin reported for Pros. The haul crushes their previous off-year fundraising records, and they’ll report more than $47 million in the bank.
THE SENATE MAP — Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) is expected to run in the special election for Senate in Georgia, setting up a clash with newly-appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) in the all-party contest in November, POLITICO’s Melaine Zanona, James and John Bresnahan reported. Loeffler, who was appointed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, was initially opposed by some in Trumpworld and some conservative groups, who favored Collins. More from the POLITICO crew: “The announcement is expected to come soon. Collins' office declined to comment.”
— An internal poll from former Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ campaign showed him with a significant lead in the GOP primary in Alabama, but below the margin to avoid a runoff, James writes in. Sessions had 43 percent support, compared to 22 percent for Rep. Bradley Byrne and 21 percent for former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville. All three candidates had overwhelmingly positive images among primary voters, but Sessions was best known. Roy Moore, the failed candidate from the 2017 special election, was at only 8 percent (700 likely GOP primary voters; Jan 13-15; +/- 3.7 percentage point MOE).
THE HOUSE MAP — The DCCC added a dozen candidates to its “Red to Blue” program for top House challengers, the first adds this cycle, Ally reported for Pros. The adds include Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (IL-13), Dan Feehan (MN-01) and Gina Ortiz Jones (TX-23), along with Christy Smith, who is running in the special election in CA-25 while trying to fend off fellow Democrat Cenk Uygur.
— Freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s top opponent in the Republican primary in NJ-02 is indeed bailing on the district. Republican David Richter told POLITICO New Jersey’s Matt Friedman that he’s going to “step aside” in NJ-02 to run against freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim in NJ-03, and that he’s endorsing Van Drew. He’ll join Republican Kate Gibbs in the NJ-03 primary; Gibbs called Richter a “seat shopper” following his announcement.
Van Drew’s remaining Republican opponent Bob Patterson, still appears to be intent on running, saying “voters will have a clear choice on June 2: A lifelong conservative vs. a lifelong liberal” in a statement.
THE CASH DASH — Bonus points to anyone who files their report before the day of the deadline. Anyway, some more numbers:
—CA-48: Republican Michelle Steel raised over $520,000 in the quarter, her campaign said, and will report over $1.3 million in the bank for her bid to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda.
— FL-18 Democrat Oz Vazquez announced he raised $185,000 in the quarter as he looks to challenge GOP Rep. Brian Mast, but did not announce a cash on hand total.
— IN-05: Democrat Christina Hale raised $269,000 in the quarter for her bid in the open-seat, battleground district. The campaign has $420,000 on hand.
— MN-07: Republican Michelle Fischbach raised $264,000 for her bid against Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson and reported $204,000 on hand, per her FEC report.
— TX-10: GOP Rep. Michael McCaul raised nearly $500,000 and has $1 million in the bank, per The Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston.
FIRST IN SCORE — ON THE AIRWAVES —The Club for Growth is going up in WI-07 to boost Republican state Assemblyman Tom Tiffany ahead of the Feb. 18 special primary for ex-GOP Rep. Sean Duffy’s northern Wisconsin seat. The spot, backed by a $130,000 buy on cable and satellite, touts Tiffany’s plans to cut bureaucratic red tape and balance the budget. He’s facing Jason Church in the primary.
— The DCCC is launching its first national TV buy of the cycle, dropping $1 million on an ad campaign hitting House Republicans and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over drug prices. However, the campaign “won’t offer much air cover to vulnerable members who have been battered by anti-impeachment ads for months,” Ally wrote for Pros. “In a conference call with reporters, DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos pushed back against the suggestion that the ads were meant to rebut the GOP ad onslaught, citing the importance of health care messaging. ‘This is no direct response to anything that the Republicans are doing,’ she said.”
— Majority Forward, the nonprofit tied to Senate Democratic leadership, is launching a “six-figure” digital ad campaign targeting vulnerable Senate Republicans over the impeachment trial. The ads in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina hit senators over witnesses in the trial.
— Alaska Wilderness League Action, a nonprofit group, is up with a “six-figure” ad buy hitting Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), calling on him to “stop betraying Colorado values and support legislation protecting the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.”
— Republican Susan Wagle is up with her first television ad in the competitive Kansas Senate primary. The ad rails against “socialized medicine” while trying to tie Barbara Bollier, the presumptive Democratic nominee in the state, to Warren, Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez.
THE OUTSIDE GROUPS — Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund and Victory Fund, the pro-gun control group, plan on spending at least $60 million this cycle, according to a memo circulated by the organizations. The organization said it is evaluating races in at least 13 states, ranging from the presidential race to state legislative battles.
STAFFING UP — The NRCC tapped Jon Reedy as senior adviser, POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt reported, “a shakeup that comes amid mounting concerns about the party’s prospects of winning back the House majority.”
CODA — STORY OF THE DAY: “Inside the messy, awkward, occasionally successful dating scene on the campaign trail” — From The Washington Post.
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